Optimism vs. Pessimism
“The global recovery is threatened by intensifying strains in the euro area and fragilities elsewhere. Financial conditions have deteriorated, growth prospects have dimmed, and downside risks have escalated.” –from the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook update this month
“Optimism among U.S. industrial manufacturers regarding the prospects for the U.S. economy over the next 12 months rose to 30% in the fourth quarter of 2011 – up from only 5% in the third quarter of 2011.” –from PricewaterhouseCoopers’ fourth quarter Manufacturing Barometer survey
For truckers trying to read the economic tea leaves to figure out what direction freight volumes might be headed in, there isn’t much clarity to be found of late.
For example, take the quotes above – one from the latest World Economic Outlook update compiled by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the other gleaned from a quarterly survey of manufacturers conducted by global consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).
They only scratch the surface of the iceberg in terms of uncertainty plaguing the global economy right now, as portents of doom are being issued right alongside a sudden surge in confidence about the business opportunities ahead.
The gloom of course derives from the still precarious sovereign debt situation in Europe; a region of the world the IMF now believes is headed for a recession this year. The international entity slashed its economic growth outlook for the “Euro zone” this month, predicting a drop in economic output of 0.5% for the region in 2012 – a decline of 1.6% from its outlook last year – and only meager growth of 0.8% in 2013, a decline of 0.7% from previous estimates. more






