Trucks at Work Blog

“The automotive industry will reach a turning point during 2010, as it begins the gradual transition away from the internal combustion engine and towards electrification.” –John Gartner, senior analyst with Pike Research, from the firm’s latest report dubbed Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment

Just to make this clear at the start here, I don’t agree with the above statement coming out of Pike Research’s report. I don’t think the turning point for all-electric and hybrid-electric vehicles is going to be this year, much less two of three years down the road.

But I do think that “turning point” is going to occur, for the simple reason that the cost of fuel is going to spike again – a direct result of another run-up in oil prices. Won’t happen soon, but it will happen; the growth track of mammoth economies such as China and India almost make it inevitable.

Now, the reason Pike’s experts think the transition to the “electrification” of motor vehicles is upon is comes from a rapidly developing build-out of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure. Pike forecasts a total of 4.7 million such charge points are going to be installed worldwide from 2010 to 2015.

While I think that build-out is way too small to support a massive near-term shift to electric-powered vehicles, Pike thinks otherwise – as laid out in its recent report, entitled Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment.

“The success of hybrid vehicles in the 2000s gave drivers a taste for propulsion by electric power,” says Pike’s John Gartner. “Governments around the world are now highly focused on creating the charging infrastructure to support the arrival of EVs in significant numbers.”

[Recharging electric vehicles is also pretty simple, too — a big plus for making them attractive for drivers. Check this clip out, demonstrating how some of the new public recharging stations installed by Virginia’s Dominion Power operate. This one is at a highway rest stop.]

Now, Pike did downgraded its forecast slightly to 4.7 million charging stations from its original estimate of 5 million last year, largely due to a somewhat slower projected rate of sales for EVs, in addition to the continued lack of a clear business model for public charging stations.

“The economics of selling a few kilowatt hours per charge are very challenging, and as such we anticipate that public charging station deployments will be driven mainly by government initiatives over the next several years,” Gartner said.

He added that, by 2015, access to vehicle charging will be available at nearly one million charge points in the U.S., with EVs and plug-in hybrids in this country being primarily charged at home, while in the rest of the world, public charging will play a more central role due to reduced access to convenient home charging.

The additional power demand from EV charging will have little overall impact on grid reliability, but could impact the reliability of distribution equipment in neighborhoods with the highest EV concentrations, said Gartner.

[Here’s another EV re-charging demonstration; this one from Europe.]

He also expects that by 2015, more than 3.1 million EVs – including plug-in hybrids and all-electric vehicles – will be sold worldwide. And comments from a wide range of automakers seems to support that outlook for more production of “electrified” vehicles.

Michael Dick of Audi recently emphasized that the potential for electric power will be developed in successive steps, with lightweight vehicle construction and efficiency technologies will play a central role in the further optimization of electrical vehicles.

What will be decisive are advances in battery technology, he said. “It is our aspiration, just as we currently use every drop of fuel in the optimum fashion, to use every kilowatt of current for optimal movement, comfort, safety and driving pleasure,” Dick explained.

“For sustained mobility it is necessary to use all technological skills judiciously to increase efficiency, downsizing and lightweight construction across the full range of transmission technologies,” he added.

The U.S. government is giving a big boost to vehicle “electrification” as well with plans to buy an entire slab of them in the coming years. The U.S. General Services Administration (GSA), for example, plans to double the federal hybrid fleet this year and has committed to purchasing approximately 100 plug-in hybrid vehicles in 2011.

Using existing funds, GSA will replace 5,603 of the least fuel efficient cars and trucks in the Federal government’s fleet with fuel efficient hybrids, doubling the number of hybrids in the federal fleet without increasing the total number of vehicles. The resulting improvement in fleet fuel efficiency will reduce petroleum consumption by the equivalent of an estimated 7.7 million gallons of gas, or 385,000 barrels of oil, the agency said.

“By doubling the hybrid fleet and committing to purchasing plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, GSA is leveraging our position as the government’s centralized supplier to invest in emerging clean energy technologies, increase the government fleet’s fuel economy, and decrease the cost of government operations,” said Martha Johnson, GSA’s administrator.

Will efforts like these help further a shift to “electrification” of motor vehicles in the U.S.? That remains to be seen. But it’s a trend worth watching – especially as to whether “electrification” will have staying power in the minds of the U.S. public.

“It is truly unbelievable what people are doing while driving. The results of our survey show that so many people are distracted and doing other things while on the road - even though they know the consequences that can occur.” –Jonas Forsberg, mobile division general manager-North America, GN Netcom, Inc.

It’s a headline bound to grab the attention of even the most jaded reporter: 15% of respondents to six-country online survey admit to having sex or performing sexual acts behind the wheel WHILE DRIVING. As that action hero sidekick Robin used to say: “Holy Toledo, Batman!”

The survey – funded by Jabra, a division of GN Netcom that makes driver headset and speaker-phone systems and conducted by Lindberg International – is based on responses from 1,800 consumers between the ages of 18 and 65, with an equal number from the U.S., United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, and Japan.

Conducted over a period commencing April 6 through April 9 this year, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.1%, the survey asked respondents how often they performed specific activities while driving and how dangerous they consider the activities. The majority (75%) drives an average of 10 hours or less per week. Here’s what the survey uncovered:

• 29% of respondents admitted to having kissed others while driving, whereas a smaller, but surprising number (15%) said they have performed sex or other sexual acts while driving

• 28% confirmed they have sent text messages while driving

• 13% reported they have applied makeup while driving

• 12% admitted to having written or read emails while driving

• 10% reported reading newspapers or magazines while driving

• And 5% confessed to playing video games while driving, with another 5% saying they shaved while behind the wheel

Other factors gleaned from Lindberg’s polling: some 35% of respondents admitting that they have taken clothes off or put clothes on while the car is in motion, while another 23% admitting to often styling their hair. The majority (72%) copped to eating food while driving, prompting Jonas Forsberg, mobile division general manager-North America, GN Netcom, Inc., to say, for safety of other drivers, “it’s important to keep both hands on the wheel, not the meal.”

On a more serious note, road rage in general appears to be a growing global issue, with 63% of those polled saying that they yell at other motorists while driving – and the French appear to be the biggest offenders in this category.

It’s also worthy of note that only a small percentage (32%) of the surveyed drivers say they’re using a hands-free device when talking on the phone while driving – even though it’s the law in many of their countries.

Young people (age 18-35) from all countries also appear to be engaging in bad driving behaviors with higher frequency, but at the same time don’t feel that these activities are as dangerous as perceived by those who are older.

Across the board, the Japanese are the worst offenders when it comes to personal grooming while driving, along with being the heaviest users of video games, movies, audio books, and music devices while operating a motor vehicle. Alternatively, the British appear to be more safety oriented with the highest level of awareness around highly dangerous driving behaviors.

Of course, as with all surveys, there’s a grain of salt that needs to be added. I mean, really – if YOU were offered an opportunity to take a survey that listed ‘sex behind the wheel’ as a possible answer, wouldn’t YOU feel at least tempted to respond ‘YES’ even if in truth it’s something you (hopefully) would never do? There is always the ‘mischievous’ factor to consider when polls pursue such a line of question.

Still, despite the survey’s small size and the above-mentioned ‘mischievous’ factor, the data gleaned from this survey clearly says a lot of work remains in terms of changing driver behaviors – and it won’t be a short-term process, that is for sure.

“The household sector, which accounted for almost a third of total emissions in the U.S. in 2006, has seen no significant gains in [greenhouse gas] emissions efficiency during the past decade. Even though emissions per household are low, the cumulative effect of the U.S. household sector’s consumption of energy is large.” –From the Commerce Department’s report U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Intensities Over Time issued this past April

It’s one of those critical factoids overlooked amid the ballyhooed effort by President Obama’s administration to create fuel economy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission standards for medium- and heavy-duty trucks: they aren’t the biggest producers of GHGs within the U.S. economy.

Know who is? You, me, and every other average homeowner and/or car and light-truck driver in the nation. Yep, we’re the biggest producers of GHGs – bigger even than the MANUFACTURING sector of the U.S. economy; those evil titans of industry with their big factories supposedly spewing out global warming gases by the metric ton.

Turns out the lowly homeowner is responsible for most of the CO2 being produced in this country – and that’s according to data compiled by the GOVERNMENT; the very same folks that now drawing a CO2 line in the air (if you will) for truckers.

In its U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Intensities Over Time report issued this past April, the Commerce Department calculated that energy-related CO2 emissions in the U.S. increased from about 5.6 billion metric tons (Bmt) in 1997 to almost 6.0 Bmt in 2007, an increase of 7.4% percent over the decade or an average annual increase of about 0.7% per year.

The Commerce Department’s research also indicated that manufacturing and households are the two highest-emitting CO2 sectors in the U.S. economy – higher even than transportation. Yet household emissions are now LARGER than those of manufacturing!

Manufacturing was responsible for one-quarter (25%) of total CO2 emissions in 2006, down 30% from 1998. However, the household sector was by far the largest producer of energy-related CO2 emissions in 2006, responsible for 30% or roughly 1.8 Bmt worth per year – over DOUBLE the amount the transportation sector produces (some 912 million metric tons [Mmt] annually).

Here’s another critical statistic the Commerce Department uncovered: The household sector has NOT become more energy efficient. In 1997, manufacturing emitted more CO2 than any other sector. But by 2006, households were the largest CO2 emitting sector. During these years, while manufacturing was reducing its emission per dollar of output, CO2 emissions per household increased, Commerce noted.

What comprises “household emissions” you ask? It’s the combined consumption of all primary fuels—electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, propane, etc.—for heat and power, as well as the consumption of gasoline and diesel fuel for light-duty vehicles (LDVs), primarily automobiles and light-duty trucks.

For 1998, 2002 and 2006, on average, according to Commerce’s data, approximately one-third of all household emissions resulted from fuel consumption in LDVs, with the remaining two-thirds of the emissions were from utility use for heat and power.

Between 1998 and 2006, emissions levels grew from both of these sources, with “emissions intensity” from household use of LDVs increasing by a total of about 7%, with emissions intensity related to household use of utilities in residential structures increasing by 2%.

In terms of the CO2 growth, within households, about 45% of the increase came from an increase in gasoline usage, with the remaining 55% arising from higher utility usage.

Manufacturing, however, displayed a 10.5% drop in total CO2 emissions from 1998 to 2006. As a result, manufacturing’s share of total CO2 emissions dropped from 30% to 25% between 1998 and 2006 – demonstrating a greater decline (5 percentage points) in its share of emissions than its overall economic share, which declined by 3 percentage points between 1998 and 2006.

One of the reasons why emission intensities of households may have increased over the 1998 to 2006 period is that household size has increased in each of those years as well, Commerce’s researchers noted. In 1998, there were 2.59 persons per household; by 2002, 2.63 and by 2006, 2.67, according to U.S. Census Bureau figures. By 2010, household size should again increase, up to an estimated 2.69 persons.

And yet … what are we focusing the harsh lens of regulation upon? Why, commercial trucks of course! Even though they (apparently) are NOT the largest source of CO2 emissions in the U.S.!

The problem, though, is that the transportation sector had the largest proportional increase in CO2 emissions over the 1998-2006 period, posting an increase of 16.1%, or 127 Mm. However, households posted the largest absolute increase with a net gain of 210 Mmt (a 12.9% jump) which accounted for almost two-thirds of the 328 Mmt increase within the entire economy.

Yet let’s face it – trucks make an easy target. The distribution of emissions within the transportation industry, according to the data compiled by the Commerce Department, shows that by far, trucks are the greatest emitter of CO2 within this economic sector – responsible for 47% of the 912.1 Mmt of CO2 emissions in 2006 from this sector. Air transport, by contrast, is a distant second at 22%, with water transport responsible for just 10%, warehousing, 8%, and rail a measly 5%.

Commerce found, it should be noted, that the water transportation industry showed significant increases in emissions intensity between 1998 and 2006, with the trucking sector also becoming less efficient over this time period.

However, trucking has a pretty good excuse – complying with Environmental Protection Agency standards to cut oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) emissions. Those efforts, it must be noted, resulted in poorer fuel economy and higher CO2 emissions.

The key to reducing GHG emissions – of which CO2 is a major component – boils down to improving fuel efficiency of the entire transportation network, Allen Schaeffer, executive director of the Diesel Technology Forum, told me earlier this year.

“Reducing carbon emissions is a direct function of reducing GHGs. You do that by burning less petroleum fuel,” he explained. “But from a GHG perspective, you are no longer looking at controlling emissions from just a diesel engine by itself – you are looking at the fuel efficiency of the entire vehicle, which includes how it’s operated.”

In some ways, too, this focus on GHG reduction is creating a major emission policy contradiction, Schaeffer noted. “We’ve spent the last two decades controlling PM and NOx emissions in trucking, which led to reductions in fuel economy,” he pointed out. “Now, we’re looking to control GHGs, requiring improvements in fuel economy. If we’d started with this goal first, we wouldn’t have done what we did over the last 20 years.”

A good point, but the emissions ship is sailing a new course now, though the particulars are still vague. What comes next in terms of specific fuel economy and GHG standards is when we’ll find out how smooth the sailing is going to be, or if the waters are going to be a lot rougher than expected.

“Trucking really needs to take a hard look at itself – it’s high time to examine this issue of health and wellness in trucking because of the obvious benefits they can have for both carriers and drivers alike.” –Rebecca Brewster president & CEO of the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI)

To look at Jon Osborn, you’d never think he nearly died from lack of sleep.

A powerfully-built Navy veteran (specializing in “aviation medicine”), retired chief paramedic for the city of San Francisco and a former long-haul trucker to boot, Osborn is as skilled as anyone can get in dealing with the unexpected – especially highly chaotic and traumatic kinds of unexpected events.

Yet for years he didn’t feel right – though he told me he just kept shrugging that feeling off, plowing through the unending stream of days powered by coffee, cigarettes, and big meals. He tagged smoking as the culprit, tried to quit, and watched his weight balloon past 335 pounds. Osborn just couldn’t figure out what was wrong – but his family had some ideas.

He snored loudly and heavily every night – so bad that, once while on a family vacation to Disney World, he got banished to the hotel hallway to sleep. That convinced him to go see a doctor (a tough moment for any veteran corpsman to face) and eventually discovered he suffered from sleep apnea.

Officially termed “obstructive sleep apnea” or OSA, it’s a condition in which individuals obstruct their own airways while sleeping, typically resulting in “hypoxia” or low blood oxygen levels at night. That in turn leads to interruptions in breathing lasting several seconds at a time, loud snoring, and non-restful sleep.

Individuals with OSA are frequently entirely unaware of the condition, according to medical research.

In addition to the substantial risks of impairment or incapacitation as a direct result of the fatigue associated with OSA, the untreated disorder increases the likelihood of other operationally relevant medical conditions, including stroke, heart failure, coronary artery disease, and diabetes.

Osborn himself bears testament to all of this; he’s also living proof that, with treatment, OSA doesn’t have to lead to such trauma. He uses a continuous positive airway pressure or “CPAP” machine to negate the effects of OSA; a device that forces a continuous stream of air into the breathing passages to prevent the airway from closing, thus allowing an OSA sufferer to get the sleep they need.

As a result of dealing with his OSA, Osborn said he quit smoking and lost over 100 pounds. Furthermore, he feels so much better and more energetic, all because his body now gets proper rest.

[Osborn will be on The Dave Nemo Show tomorrow – Tuesday, May 25 at 8:00 am eastern time – on Sirius-XM Satellite Radio XM 171/Sirius 147 to talk about OSA, with special guests Dr. Maggi Gunnells and Dr. Benisse Lester, who run the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s (FMCSA) medical programs. All three will address rumors about medical requirements concerning truck driver Department of Transportation (DOT) medical exams, medical requirements for drivers, and how the system works for medical rule making and guidance.]

But the battle against OSA isn’t over for Osborn. He’s part of a new “mobile campaign” to help truck drivers discern if they suffer from sleep apnea or not. As “captain” of the “MeRV” – short for Medical Resource Vehicle – Osborn will be logging 1,500 to 2,500 miles per week, visiting truck stops and trucking terminals across the country, testing up to six drivers per day for OSA.

[These OSA “sleep tests” will be conducted using a special “sleep shirt” developed by Safety First Sleep Solutions (SFSS). In this clip, Greg McDerman, SFSS’ vp, explains how both the firm’s sleep shirt works as well as the function of a CPAP, if one needs to be prescribed to a trucker.]

Safety First Sleep Solutions (SFSS) operates the MeRV in partnership with the St. Christopher’s Truckers Development and Relief fund to provide drivers with testing for a variety of sleep disorders (and Osborn is also serving as a field sales representative for SFSS as well).

The MeRV is a 37-feet long camper, equipped with a liftgate, built on a three year old C5500 25,000 lb GVW GM chassis equipped with a Duramax diesel and Allison six speed automatic transmission. “Our ‘break-in’ mileage so far is 8.93 miles per gallon, but we’re hoping to eventually get 14 mpg with this truck,” he said.

Osborn’s routine will be to invite truckers into the van for coffee and to fill out a medical history survey (roughly 40 questions long). Standard tests are conducted (temperature and blood pressure readings, for instance) with the truckers then fitted with SFSS’s special “sleep shirts.” The drivers then return to the sleeper berths of their tractors for the night.

“We need about five hours of sleep data to make a determination if they suffer from OSA,” Osborn told me. That data is then sent to the offices of Dr. John McElligott, with roughly four to six days needed to determine if the patient in question does suffer from OSA and needs treatment.

[Not all truckers do well with CPAP machines, so there are other alternatives being touted today. ImThera Medical, for example, has developed a new OSA treatment therapy using neuro-stimulation via its aura6000 device. Here’s a clip showing how this particular device works.]

This isn’t a small problem, either. Currently, more than 800,000 patients in the U.S. are diagnosed every year with OSA, with more than 20 million un-treated patients estimated to suffer from this condition. While many in trucking think all this talk about OSA is nothing more than a money-grab by the medical device industry – and there is some truth to that – in my discussions with truckers suffering from sleep apnea, it’s about time this health issue got some attention.

“You don’t know you have it,” Gary Hull, a former trucker and also a member of Truckers For a Cause, told me at the recent Sleep Apnea & Trucking Conference I attended outside of Baltimore, MD.

Diagnosed in 2004 with OSA, Hull said the difference for him has been “night and day” in terms of physical well-being. “I used to only be able to drive two hours before needing to take a break, walk around, get a cup of coffee,” he explained. “OSA is like when you can’t see well; you don’t notice it until you put on glasses and go ‘Wow! Look at what I can see now!’”

Having the “MeRV” visiting truck stops and trucking terminals will help, too – not only in terms of screening for OSA, but paying long overdue attention to driver health and wellness, too.

The physical fitness and overall health of the aging truck driver population in the U.S. is a growing concern among industry experts because fitness relates so strongly to job performance, Rebecca Brewster president & CEO of the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) told me a while back.

“Certainly, the more physically fit and healthy drivers are, the more alert and less fatigued they are,” she explained. “Being physically fit also makes them less susceptible to injury as an increased fitness level gives them more body strength and flexibility – critical aspects when loading and unloading trailers, for example.”

Yet the overall prognosis for truck drivers isn’t good. Brewster said that, according to recent research, 55% of truck drivers overweight and more than 50% smoke, compared to a national overall average of 20.9% and 25%, respectively.

“Clearly, [drivers] have the final responsibility to eat right and exercise,” Brewster said. “But the stress out on the road, the lack of time to exercise, all contribute to the issue. My personal belief is that we as an industry must do what it takes to support ways to make drivers more fit and healthy – because the bottom line impact for carriers cannot be ignored.”

“What these numbers are telling us is that we’re seeing the safety performance intended by the current hours of service rules.” –Rebecca Brewster, president, American Transportation Research Institute

The numbers are pretty startling, to say the very least. According to a just-completed study conducted by the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) that analyzed safety data collected in 2009 and in 2004, truck-involved collisions are down dramatically – proof, perhaps, that the current hours of service (HOS) regulations may indeed be helping to improve highway safety.

Now, point of full disclosure here: ATRI is a not-for-profit freight transportation research group that’s funded in part by the American Trucking Associations (ATA). That being said, though, the group used actual crash numbers collected by government sources (as well as detailed survey data gleaned from carriers) as part of its research.

And boy did they find some positive trend lines in the making! From 2004 - 2009, ATRIO found that the total truck-involved collision rate decreased 11.7%, while the more important “preventable collision” rate decreased a whopping 30.6%.

“While you can’t make a direct causal relationship between HOS rules and crash data, you can make a connection here,” Rebecca Brewster, ATRI’s president, told me by phone. “Look at the preventable collisions in particular: these are events where driver reaction makes the difference. And they only react faster is they are rested, if they are getting enough sleep, if they are not fatigued.”

ATRI also uncovered other evidence to further the link between current HOS rules and reduction in driver fatigue.

Using 2009 data, the group found that the majority (87%) of commercial motor vehicle crashes occurred within the first eight hours of driving, with just 12% occurring between the 9th and 11th hour of driving. A similar trend was found in an analysis of fatal truck collisions using the Trucks Involved in Fatal Accidents (TIFA) database, with a review of 2007 TIFA data showing that 80% of fatal truck collisions occurred within the first eight hours of driving.

“These are important numbers to note, because again it shows that drivers are not fatigued; that they are getting the rest they need,” Brewster explained. “If they were NOT getting rested, they’d be more fatigued at the end of their driving day and we’d expect to see higher crash rates.”

In fact, according to the data gathered by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), there’s been just one truck crash in the 11th hour of drive time in the last three years of available safety data – none in 2004, one in 2005, and none in 2006.

Here are some other key findings from ATRI’s analysis:

• Total driver injuries decreased 1.6% for all fleets and 23% for TL fleets. Both findings were statistically significant.

• Nearly 70% of drivers used part of the 9-10 hour at least once during the month. Approximately 60 percent of drivers used part of the 10-11 hour and slightly less (52%) used the entire 10-11 hour. The majority of drivers (79%) used the 34-hour restart at least once during a month.

• In general, drivers used the 34-hour restart an average of three or fewer times per month. Among TL drivers, 56% used the 34-hour restart three or fewer times per month; LTL, 61%; and Specialized, 66%.

At the end of the day, though, Brewster emphasizes that it’s more important to look at the long term trend lines these numbers establish.

“It shows that we’re continuing to see improvement, that we’re continuing to see a positive safety trend long after the [current] HOS rules were put in place,” she stressed. “It shows the rules are working.”

That point, of course, is being debated heavily right now as the FMCSA is re-examining current HOS regulations – leading to potentially more changes in the future. So we’ll just have to see how all of this plays out.

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Since the weekend is almost upon us, I’d like to leave you with a little humor, if I may.

Now, being a long-time ‘Star Wars’ geek (“The Force will be with you, always …”) I just have to share two of the funniest commercials now being bandied about TV and the Internet featuring none-other than the best super-villain in the galaxy, Darth Vader (which is actually Dutch for ‘Dark Father.’)

First up … Darth Vader Plays Golf … and let me tell, many a time I wished I could have used Jedi powers on the golf course in this fashion …

Next up … Darth Vader’s Voice-Over Work for TomTom … You’ve got to see it to believe it …

Have a safe weekend!

“There’s nothing wrong with hard work or a dirty job. I can’t tell you how many millionaires I’ve met who are covered in crap.” –Mike Rowe, host of Discovery Channel’s “Dirty Jobs” TV series, from an interview with Spirit magazine.

We talk a good game about the innovations and revolutions going on in trucking today: about pollution-free trucks, safety technologies, real-time communication and data transfer, you name it.

What often gets lost in all of this, though, is the truck driver – the man or woman expected to pilot such high-tech modern marvels across the country or across town, wending their way through crowded streets, over steep mountain grades, through snow, ice, rain, and blistering heat.

The truck driver in a lot of ways gets a bad rap these days – which, sad to say, is pretty much how the job’s been viewed over the last several decades. The U.S. Department of Labor considers driving a big rig “unskilled labor” and the job’s pay is structured along those lines.

A truck driver faces a 14 hour work day – 11 behind the wheel, three spent loading and unloading – with no overtime, and those house run consecutively, so taking a break to rest or have lunch impacts their total potential mileage and thus their paycheck.

Many drivers don’t have health insurance – the Owner Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA), for one, reports that some 30% of its membership can’t afford it – putting even more fiscal pressures upon them and their families.

To top it all off, more rules are being laid upon the driving position – the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s Comprehensive Safety Analysis (CSA) 2010 program is the latest and greatest effort in this arena – in an effort to weed out the “bad apples” with poor driving records and high accident rates. Some in the industry believe CSA 2010 could effectively slice 20% out of the current truck driver population.

So what we’re left with is an ever-more highly regulated job with low pay and long hours – and we haven’t even begun to factor in the negative view of truckers that permeates the popular culture.

Now, yes, there are plenty of driver positions that pay well with decent hours – private fleets and LTL carriers come to mind – but these are still not positions you see people putting at the top of their job “wish list” by any stretch of the imagination.

I remember talking to J.D. Morrissette with Interstate Van Lines (which is conveniently based just up the road from me in Springfield, VA) several years ago about how tough it’s become to find people willing to not just become truck drivers, but willing to be exceptional at it.

“Finding drivers and helpers is getting more and more difficult,” he told me. “We don’t get the numbers of new entrants at a young age that we used to get. And locally for us it’s even harder, as our home county of Fairfax, VA, is very affluent and unemployment is low, so finding people willing to go into moving and storage as is getting harder.”

Moreover, he added, with high expectations of excellence in academics, sports, and extracurricular activities for youngsters doesn’t translate into trucking careers in the minds of most parents these days. “It all comes back to this: ‘Did we raise our kids to be truck drivers?” Morrissette noted.

The problem is, these are the qualities NEEDED in trucking. With all the high tech components packed into today’s big rigs, with all the demands for safety, on-time delivery, and cargo integrity placed on drivers, it should be a job that attracts some of the best and brightest out there. Yet it very rarely does.

Of all people, Mike Rowe – host of Discovery Channel’s Dirty Jobs TV series – brought this issue home to me. In an interview with Spirit magazine, he talked about how many types of work are being devalued today, and how that’s affecting our nation. Though he didn’t talk about truckers, directly, I think you’ll see that job description incorporated in his words.

“[My grandfather] was a master plumber, carpenter, architect and stonemason by the time he was 30. He showed a commitment to the skilled trades; an ability to put anything together,” Rowe said. “As a result, he was the hero of his community. Carl Knobel was the guy you called to fix anything.”

But today, Rowe said, if Knobel were walking around, he would be invisible. “That is the problem,” he explained. “We know who Kelly Clarkson is; we know who Michael Jackson’s doctor was. But the guys like my grandfather who used to be on every block who used to be everywhere, omnipresent, a solution on every block … when fixing things was not only celebrated and revered, they’re disparaged today or looked down on.”

Rowe added, though, that nobody follows their passion into “dirty jobs,” angling to work in waste water treatment or do window washing. “You do it because you’re hungry and you’ve found a job nobody else wants to do. And then you do it well, with a good attitude, with an entrepreneurial spirit,” he said. “The blind spot that we have right now, socially, is that we don’t look at entrepreneurs and associate them with dirt. We associate them with private jets. And that’s dangerous fiction.”

He pointed to the ongoing effort to fund “shovel-ready” construction projects with federal stimulus funds as an example of why this “fiction” is so troublesome. “I hear Washington D.C. promising 3 million or 4 million ‘shovel-ready’ jobs and I think, ‘Wouldn’t it be great is ‘shovel-ready’ was something people aspired to?’” Rowe noted. “You’re trying to create jobs that have been systematically demeaned for two generations … It’s going to be a tough sell.”

Likewise, it’ll take some time before encourage someone to drive a truck for a living won’t be a “tough sell” either.

“This software is a new experience – you can get feedback. You can see body strength in real time. You can see fatigue. When you have that ability to see motion, to predict motion, you can work that into your designs and programs.” — Tim Marler, a senior research scientist with the Virtual Soldier Research (VSR) program

This may seem a little weird, at first: using “digital humans” to test everything from tanks to cars, trucks, even earthmovers.

You may also rightly tell yourself, “Hey, real humans do things very differently in the real world” when compared to what occurs in so-called “virtual reality” programs.

But here’s the thing: a whole slew of industries, along with the U.S. Department of Defense, are looking to use digital re-creations of human beings to perform much more detailed analysis of equipment and job functions – long before said equipment or jobs become “real.”

The reason is pretty simple: more “bugs” can worked out of a variety of things at a far lower cost if they are subjected to what amounts to “real world” testing without using the real world, per se.

“Creating the safest and most ergonomic way to build a vehicle is a trial-and-error process – but in recent years technology has allowed this process to happen in the virtual world,” noted Allison Stephens, ergonomics technical specialist with Ford Motor Company’s vehicle operations manufacturing engineering.

“’Santos’ takes this to a new level,” she said. “He can perform a task and tell us whether over months and years it will cause back strain, for example, and we can make adjustments until we find the optimal way to get the job done.”

“Santos” by the way is the digital human created by the Defense Department’s Virtual Soldier Research (VSR) project, created with the aid of the University of Iowa.

The VSR program is designed to help reduce physical strain on soldiers by having “Santos” do a lot of physical grunt work for them; maneuvering and operating tanks, humvees, etc., long before they are actually built to see if they can be improved from an ergonomic perspective.

[Here’s a video that explains the VSR project and how “Santos” works. It’s pretty cool stuff. You’ll note towards the end of this clip that one of his primary functions is to test out the interior of military vehicles, to make sure switches, knobs, and other control functions are located in good ergonomic positions.]

Now “Santos” is stretching his legs in the civilian world, now about to be employed by Ford to build on its previous use of digital avatars – dubbed “Jack” and “Jill” – that help the automaker test ergonomics and safety on the assembly line in the virtual world. Santos goes further by allowing Ford to understand the true strain on the body when performing actions on the job, noted Stephens.

“It’s very cool in the ‘ergo world’ that we can evaluate these types of movements, these lifts where you’re using acceleration, or momentum - what we call the dynamics of a lift,” she said. “The same issue is at work at Ford as in the military - how to analyze human limits with dynamic motion. ‘Santos,’ with his capability in predictive dynamics, will aid in increasing efficiency as well as safety and quality.”

“Santos” is the culmination of years of study in modeling, multi-body dynamics and robotics, noted Jay Johnson, CEO of SantosHuman Inc., which works in conjunction with the University of Iowa. “Our software uses a physics platform,” he said. “We can change things and see the effect; that’s what predictive dynamics brings to the table.”

Predictive dynamics uses general rules of human body movement combined with complex mathematical models and robotics to enable Santos to provide feedback on fatigue, speed, strength and torque, even as the parameters of the virtual environment change, added Tim Marler, one of the VSR senior research scientists work in “Santos.”

I think it’s pretty clear how such a “digital human” could help take truck design and engineering to a new level. As we all know, trucks are being re-shaped to get better fuel economy, while a host of new functionality is being added for the driver’s use. All that requires careful design, to make sure the driver doesn’t suffer from repetitive motion strain trying to reach certain controls. Using “Santos,” in this context, could surely be helpful.

However, it should be noted that “Santos” isn’t quite “reality yet. The Defense Department has been working with the University of Iowa since 2004, while Ford began working with the university just three years ago. Stephens said Ford collaborated with General Motors and Chrysler to share funding, with each automotive group paying $500,000 over the past three years to develop “Santos.”

Meanwhile, the federal government has put in approximately $10 million toward development of “Santos,” Stephens added.

Santos is still in the testing phase, she said, but when he comes on board, he will help Ford continue to move forward in the field of ergonomics.

“The human body is amazing, and we’re always learning something new,” Stephens emphasized. “The better we understand the human body, the better we can create safer, more ergonomically correct workplaces and vehicles.”

“Megacities will strive toward creating a sustainable environment by investing in innovative smart city concepts that foster green technologies and transport across all aspects of the city.” –Mohamed Mubarak, automotive and transportation group industry analyst with Frost & Sullivan

If you haven’t yet heard the term “megacity,” get used to it quickly, for it’s something that’s going to make big changes in the transportation world from here on out.

“Megacities,” by the way, are defined as urban areas with a population of 10 million or more. Today, there are 11 areas with populations of 15 million or more and just five years from now, the world is projected to have 24 of them –with such dense communities creating new transportation trend lines, such as the demand for more maneuverable freight hauling capability within their borders.

“Urban growth is surging worldwide and currently, over half the world’s population lives in cities,” notes Mohamed Mubarak, automotive and transportation group industry analyst with research firm Frost & Sullivan.

“Explosive urban population growth and sprawl pose a variety of challenges and opportunities in the way people move around for social and business needs,” he said. “The cities in developing economies will become the largest markets for existing mobility technologies while their developed counterparts will pressurize the personal mobility sector to reinvent itself into sustainable forms.”

Frost & Sullivan is also hosting a special analyst briefing this week on how transportation will be affected by these megacity trends.

Mubarak said the spatial expansion of cities and the resultant change in mobility patterns will foster f new modes of commuting and a broader shift towards eco-friendly transportation. On top of that, there will be more demand for “integrated mobility” and more regulations governing vehicular movement, he explained.

It is to be noted that 10 of the 20 largest megacities will be in developing economies and the demand for personal mobility will be more pronounced in these countries as a result of their newly gained economic status,” Mubarak added.

“In developed economies, megacities will strive toward creating a sustainable environment by investing in innovative smart city concepts that foster green technologies and transport across all aspects of the city,” he noted.

And it’s not all about transportation, either. Urbanization expert Dr. Willfried Wienholt, for one, believes future urban development strategies must give greater consideration to the principle of sustainability as, between now and 2030, 90% of global population growth will occur in cities.

Wienholt’s research indicates that an additional two billion inhabitants will move into urban centers in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East during this period, putting a huge strain on infrastructure and the environment.

Consider water, for example. Cities already consume 60% of all drinking water worldwide, either directly or indirectly as water for raising food products. With regard to energy, the state of São Paulo—the largest urban area in South America—accounts for 60% of total energy consumption in Brazil.

“Suitable housing and access to clean drinking water for all, power supplies and transport systems that are as efficient and environmentally friendly as possible, and land use and construction projects that proceed in accordance with the principle of sustainability, will all be required,” said Wienholt.

[For fun, check out the trailer for the awful 1995 movie Judge Dredd starring Sylvester Stallone. The film, based on a popular comic book hero, puts the megacity in a more negative context; making it a place rife with crime and disorder, in need of a military-style police force.]

Transportation in particular will be strongly affected by all of this, Frost & Sullivan’s Mubarak said.

“There will be a strong and steady growth in demand for conventional vehicles in the developing economies whereas the cities of the developed economies will undergo a transformation, witnessing the trial of a series of personal mobility concepts ranging from bicycle hire programs to on demand personal mobility services on a larger scale,” he pointed out. “The vehicle ownership trends in these cities will see a higher adoption of bikes, electric vehicles, city-centric cars and other forms of compact motorized vehicles not seen before.”

Of course, making such wholesale transportation shifts as smooth as possible won’t be easy – especially when it comes to electric vehicles, as they’ll place increased demand on local utility grids that supply the power to charge them.

As a result, the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) just recently created a new standard, J2836/1, to establish “use cases” for two-way communication between plug-in electric vehicles and the electric power grid, for energy transfer and other applications.

“The biggest challenge for utilities is managing the grid during peak times, a time when energy is the most expensive and demand is greatest,” said Rich Scholer, HEV E/E systems engineer with Ford Motor Co., chairman of SAE International’s hybrid task force, and sponsor of the new standard.

“As we add more plug-in electric vehicles to the grid, we’re increasing our need for on-peak power and infrastructure,” he noted. “This standard will help enable consumers to charge their vehicles at off-peak hours and help utilities better manage the grids during peak hours, thus minimizing cost and grid impacts.”

Scholer added that J2836/1 is the first in a series of five standards that are being developed by SAE International to address utility programs for plug-in electric vehicles.

Vehicle electrification is but one “side effect,” if you will, driven by the growth of megacities, noted Paul Mascarenas, a Ford vice president and general chairman of the 2010 SAE World Congress.

“Throughout human history, urban areas have attracted individuals seeking greater economic opportunity. As a city’s population grew, so did economic prosperity, which then attracted more individuals seeking greater opportunities,” he said in a speech at the group’s recent annual meeting. “And so the cycle continues.”

Yet despite the promise of mass transit, telecommuting and other alternatives, the automobile has been and will continue to be a key driver of economic opportunity in the megacities of the 21st century, Mascarenas believes, However, while automobiles offer unique potential to drive economic development, they also present unique challenges.

Consider the megacities projected to be the two largest by 2015, he said: Jakarta, Indonesia, and Tokyo-Yokohama, Japan. In Indonesia, the average age is 27 years old and gross domestic product [GDP] per capita is about $4,000, steeped in a rich mix of languages and ethnic backgrounds. By contrast, Japan has one of the most homogeneous cultures in the world, with an average age of 44 and GDP per capita of about $32,000.

“In both Jakarta and Tokyo-Yokohama, air pollution is a critical concern,” Mascarenas explained. “Yet simply adding already available emission controls – let alone introducing technologies like electrification – would make the average automobile unaffordable for most potential buyers in Jakarta.”

Growth rates, age of infrastructure and geographic constraints also vary widely from one megacity to another, he added. Consider New York City, which is geographically constrained with a long-established infrastructure and a population growing at only about one-half percent per year. “The slow growth makes it difficult to radically alter the infrastructure to support new vehicle technology or alternative transportation solutions,” he said.

On the other hand, Shenzhen, China, is a young megacity with a growth rate of 3.7% per year and a rapidly expanding infrastructure. “This offers the potential to support new and alternative vehicle technologies – or to develop solutions that combine personal transportation with mass public transit,” Mascarenas noted.

“So the question is, will emerging markets in the 21st century simply follow the same path that mature markets followed in the 20th century? Perhaps at an accelerated pace?” he asked. “Or will they follow a different path entirely?”

These are but some of the complex challenges that will impact transportation as megacities evolve – and the solutions to them won’t be simple, either.

“With a third-straight quarter of growth, it’s clear America’s economy is turning around.” –U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke

The number might be looking better, but do they really indicate an economy on the rebound? The question is of course immensely important to everyone (with truckers no exception), but getting a clear picture really isn’t, I’m finding.

Let’s talk raw numbers first. The U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis recently released its first estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the first quarter of 2010. Real GDP grew 3.2% at an annual rate in the first quarter, consistent with private-sector expectations, the agency said.

In terms of trade and retail sales, again, things are looking up from a purely statistical standpoint. The Bureau of Economic Analysis noted that in March, U.S. exports increased by 3.2% to $147.9 billion from February, with imports climbing 3.1% to $188.3 billion during the same period.

“The rise in imports shows increasing consumer confidence in America’s economic recovery,” noted Commerce Secretary Gary Locke (at right). “It’s also heartening to see a corresponding increase in exports.”

The Commerce Department’s U.S. Census Bureau also noted that retail sales in April performed far better than expected, increasing 0.4% after jumping 2.1% in March. Doesn’t sound like much, but it’s significant when you consider that private-sector analysts expected a small decline of 0.1% in total sales in April.

“The rising trend in retail sales indicates that consumer spending continues to grow, underlining increasing confidence in the recovery,” Secretary Locke pointed out. “The gains in consumer spending are yet another indication that the outlook for sustained economic growth is improving.”

Freight is also (not surprisingly) on the upswing as a result of increased sales and trade activity. The Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics arm said its Freight Transportation Services Index (Freight TSI) rose 0.9% in March from its February level – the third consecutive month the TSI increased.

It’s also worthy to note that the Freight TSI – which measures the month-to-month changes in freight shipments by ton-miles across all modes, even pipelines – is up 2.6% from March 2009, the first year-to-year increase in the freight index since July 2008, BTS said.

The agency also noted that that Freight TSI index has risen 4.5% over the last 10 months, starting in June 2009, after declining 15.3% in the previous 10 months beginning in August 2008 – increasing in eight of the last 10 months, while expanding 1.6% in the first three months of 2010 alone.

These are all good, positive figures, showing things are heading in the right direction – economically speaking, at least.

Then how to explain a growing worry among business executives that this nascent U.S. economic recovery might run off the rails – with a possible “double dip” recession looming ahead in the not-so-distant future>

That’s is what’s worrying over 84% of some 1,280 business professionals surveyed during a recent webcast hosted by consulting firm Deloitte LLP – with more than one-quarter (27%) of those polled very concerned that there may be a “double dip” recession, while more than half (58%) are somewhat concerned.

“Many of our clients are optimistic about the economic recovery but have lingering concerns. They are worried about job growth as well as continued uncertainty within the financial and governmental sectors,” said David Williams, CEO of Deloitte Financial Advisory Services LLP (Deloitte FAS).

“The economic growth we experienced at the end of 2009 and the momentum that continues today has resulted in increased optimism; however, until the job picture stabilizes and the credit markets firm up, concerns will remain,” he added.

The survey cut a wide swath across many industries, according to Deloitte – banking and securities, consumer and industrial products, energy and resources, financial services, health care providers, health sciences and government, insurance, telecommunications, manufacturing, retail, wholesale, and distribution, just to name a few – so it’s worrisome that so many think the light at the end of this dark recessionary tunnel may be further away than we think.

Nearly one-third (31%) of respondents polled by Deloitte believe that their company will not fully recover from the recession until after 2011, with only 14% confident their company would fully recover by the end of 2010.

Almost two-thirds (63%) of respondents think that some cost cutting measures their company implemented to weather the recession will be enforced during the upturn. Additionally, 19% of those polled responded that all cost cutting measures implemented during the recession would continue to be enforced during the upturn, according to Deloitte’s survey.

Add to this the shaky fiscal ground America – indeed, much of the developed “Western” world – is treading on these days and it’s easy to see why things might go from bad to worse, without even a brief stop at better along the way. Economist Robert J. Samuelson (below at left) made note of this dire predicament in one of his recent columns:

“Budget deficits and debt are the real problems, and these stem from all the welfare benefits – unemployment insurance, old-age assistance, health insurance – provided by modern governments,” he said. “Countries everywhere already have high budget deficits, aggravated by the recession, and Greece is exceptional only by degree.”

He’s referring here to the only just-avoided massive default on Greece’s national debt, forcing draconian cuts to wages, pensions, etc. “In 2009, its budget deficit was 13.6% of GDP; its debt, the accumulation of past deficits, was 115% of GDP. Comparable figures for the U.S. – calculated slightly differently – are 9.9% and 53%.”

While Samuelson said there are no hard rules as to what’s excessive, financial markets – the banks and investors that buy government bonds – are obviously worried. “The welfare state’s death spiral is this: Almost anything governments might do with their budgets threatens to make matters worse by slowing the economy or triggering a recession,” he said.

“By allowing deficits to balloon, they risk a financial crisis as investors one day – no one knows when – doubt governments’ ability to service their debts and, as with Greece, refuse to lend except at exorbitant rates,” Samuelson stressed. “Cutting welfare benefits or raising taxes all would, at least temporarily, weaken the economy. Perversely, that would make paying the remaining benefits harder.”

It’s quite an economic pickle we’re in long-term, which certainly takes a lot of bloom of the rosy numbers we’ve been seeing of late.

“Through humor, you can soften some of the worst blows life delivers. And once you find laughter, no matter how painful your situation might be, you can survive it.” –Bill Cosby

You know, sleep disorders and fatigue are serious issues not only in trucking and the transportation industry at large, but for American society as a whole.

We’ll get to the funny stuff in a moment (and I just can’t resist funny stuff these days, with all the bad news out there – anyone care for a BP cocktail? Oil mixed with seawater with a splash of arrogance and foolishness added for taste????), but first, let’s look at why a plain-old good night’s sleep is so critical to human society.

Sleep apnea, narcolepsy, insomnia are just some of the more than 70 recognized sleep disorders affecting millions of people – and it’s estimated that nearly two-thirds of all Americans have difficulty sleeping for a plethora of reasons.

[The National Sleep Foundation (NSF) put together a few clips detailing how poor sleep impacts one’s ability to drive – and not just for truckers.]

You can survive for seven to 10 days without water (when temps hover between 70 and 90 degrees Fahrenheit) and anywhere from 10 days to three weeks without food (depending on your initial health, climate, and physical exertion) but no more than four days without sleep – at about day three, your body’s digestion system shuts down and you’re probably hallucinating pretty badly.

Thus, sleep is vital to human survival and it’s a restorative for the human body and mind. Those who sleep fewer than six hours a night don’t live as long as those who sleep seven hours or more. And lack of sleep can be expensive, with the National Commission on Sleep Disorders estimating that sleep deprivation costs $150 billion a year in higher stress and reduced workplace productivity.

Now, according to the National Sleep Foundation (NSF), there are two different sleep factors to consider in humans: a person’s basal sleep need – the amount of sleep our bodies need on a regular basis for optimal performance – and sleep debt, the accumulated sleep that is lost to poor sleep habits, sickness, awakenings due to environmental factors or other causes.

[Here’s an NSF clip from a couple years ago that broadly looks at sleep deprivation issues. Note they discuss the average workday is around 9.5 hours; if only truckers could be so lucky! They face a 14 hour work day.]

The NSF said two studies suggest that healthy adults have a basal sleep need of seven to eight hours every night, but where things get complicated is the interaction between the basal need and sleep debt.

For instance, you might meet your basal sleep need on any single night or a few nights in a row, but still have an unresolved sleep debt that may make you feel more sleepy and less alert at times, particularly in conjunction with circadian dips – those times in the 24-hour cycle when humans are biologically programmed to be more sleepy and less alert, such as overnight hours and mid-afternoon. You may feel overwhelmingly sleepy quite suddenly at these times, shortly before bedtime or feel sleepy upon awakening.

The good news is that some research suggests that the accumulated sleep debt can be worked down or “paid off,” NSF noted

Though scientists are still learning about the concept of basal sleep need, one thing sleep research certainly has shown is that sleeping too little can not only inhibit your productivity and ability to recall and consolidate information. Lack of sleep can also lead to serious health consequences and jeopardize your safety and the safety of individuals around you, including:

• Increased risk of motor vehicle accidents

• Increase in body mass index – a greater likelihood of obesity due to an increased appetite caused by sleep deprivation

• Increased risk of diabetes and heart problems

• Increased risk for psychiatric conditions including depression and substance abuse

• Decreased ability to pay attention, react to signals or remember new information

On the other hand, NSF said some research has found that long sleep durations (nine hours or more) are also associated with increased morbidity (illness, accidents) and mortality (death). Researchers describe this relationship as a “U-shaped” curve where both sleeping too little and sleeping too much may put you at risk.

OK, we get it – getting the right amount of sleep (not too much, not too little … achieving that “goldilocks” medium) is important. But everyone suffers from sleep deprivation from time to time, no matter our best efforts (parents of newborns especially … oh, was THAT a painful experience!)

So to take a “lighter view” of being caught napping at one’s desk (no such view can be taken when dozing off behind the wheel), Martin Walker, research division chief for the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, came up with the Top Five list (a la the great David Letterman) of things to say to cover oneself when caught asleep at one’s desk during the workday. And they are …

Number Five: “They warned me at the blood bank that this might happen.”

Number Four: “Whew! I left the cap off the white out … you got here just in time!”

Number Three: “I wasn’t sleeping! I was meditating on the company’s mission statement in order to create a new business strategy.”

Number Two: “Why’d you interrupt me? I’d almost figured out that complex problem you asked me to solve.”

And the Number One thing you should say to cover yourself if caught sleeping at your desk is …

“Raise your head slowly and say ‘Amen’ …”

With that, enjoy your weekend – and don’t forget to get some sleep!