“The stock market has forecast nine of the last five recessions.” –Paul A. Samuelson

It’s a pretty funny quote, but also a true one in its way, saying basically that forecasts are nowhere near as accurate as we’d like them to be. That being said, I’m going to throw my hat in the ring and put a few forecasts out there – they might all turn out to be wrong (and I’m praying that more than a few of them are) but at least it’ll provide a measuring stick as to whether 2008 shapes up to be a better – or worse – year than 2007. Here we go:

HOS will stall: With the presidential elections barring down on us in November, don’t expect a final hours of service (HOS) rule to be delivered. Lawsuits from Public Citizen and the Teamsters will continue to bog HOS rulemaking down, leaving it to 111th Congress and a new presidential administration to sort it all out in 2009.

Mexican trucks go home: Congress already stripped funding for the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) cross-border pilot program and though it may find a way to continue, by 2009 it will be shut down. The border to Mexican trucks will most likely be closed permanently in 2009 and vice versa for U.S. trucking, based on my reading of the tea leaves, which is bad thing in my estimation.

Four dollar diesel: I think diesel fuel prices will easily surpass the $4 mark in 2008, probably sooner rather than later, with gasoline following suit. The voracious appetite of the U.S., China, and India for oil is aggravating this and no matter what conservation measures we take as a country, similar efforts won’t take place in China or India, keeping us all in a pinch.

Freight stays sluggish: We won’t see freight volumes recover until the third quarter of 2008, around September, if you ask me. As a result, new truck sales will remain stalled and the shortage of drivers will ease, since there won’t be a lot of freight to move.

Barrack Obama becomes president: There it is, the big roll of the dice. He’ll trounce Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries, pick John Edwards as his running mate, and defeat Republican candidate Rudy Guiliani to win the presidency. He’ll also make Oprah a special advisor to the president. Hey, it could happen. Let’s see if I am right.

Despite all the gizmos we’re packing onto today’s commercial on-highway trucks – roll stability control, air disc brakes, etc. – the fact remains that driver error is still the leading cause of car-truck crashes on our roads. And that means ALL drivers – truckers as well as four wheeler, with errors on the part of four wheelers still accounting for over half the reasons cars and trucks get involved in crashes.

That’s why the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance (CVSA), in partnership with the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), is going to keep expanding its Operation Safe Driver campaign. It’s aimed at getting to root causes of driver errors, which, as we all know, involve speeding and aggressive driving behaviors. Both of those are “errors” in the broad sense of the word, though drivers have a significant amount of control they can exercise over them.

“The statistics tell the tale: nearly nine out of 10 crashes between cars and trucks are attributed to the driver, with 56% of those attributed to the passenger car driver,” said FMCSA Administrator John Hill in a press statement about the new effort. “Programs like Operation Safe Driver will help all drivers realize how their decisions behind the wheel affect safety.”

With approximately 43,000 people dying on U.S. highways each year – with 5,000 of those fatalities involving large trucks – something’s got to be done. And what I like about this program is that it finally addresses the CAR driver’s role in these deadly crashes, rather than just hammer on the truck driver alone. Again, the FMCSA’s own crash analysis shows that 56% of crashes involving a large truck and a passenger vehicle are attributed to the passenger vehicle driver, with the remaining 44% (obviously) the fault of the truck driver.

“CVSA wants to make clear that driving defensively and in a cooperative manner makes for safer highways for all drivers and passengers on the road,” said CVSA Executive Director Stephen F. Campbell said. “This program part of a larger law enforcement effort and focus to reduce fatalities on the most dangerous, high crash corridors in North America.”

Now, this doesn’t mean trucking gets to turn a blind eye to the problems festering on its side of the ledger. Look at the statistics the most recent statistics Operation Safe Driver collected between October 21 and 28 this year – and effort involving nearly 3,700 law enforcement personnel and more than 1,500 localities in 31 states and five Canadian provinces.

Out of 20,523 Commercial Motor vehicle (CMV) Driver/Credential Inspections, 2,090 (10.2%) resulted in the driver being placed out of service. Some 30 carriers (or 34% of the total reviews) receiving a Conditional Safety Rating – not good, as the national average of carriers rated “Conditional” is 25%. Another 10 carriers (or 11% of the total reviews) receiving an Unsatisfactory Safety Rating – again, not good, as the national average of carriers rated “Unsatisfactory” is 6%

But then look at these two sets of statistics. Out of 16,636 CMV Driver Traffic Enforcement Contacts, 4,229 resulted in moving violations, or 0.25 violations per contact. Then, out of 6,698 Non-CMV Driver Traffic Enforcement Contacts (that’s a long-winded way of saying “car drivers”) resulted in 4,860 moving violations – or 0.73 violations per contact, almost TRIPLE the rate of truckers. That’s pretty telling, I think.

Here’s another series: out of 22,181 CMV Driver License checks and 6,205 Non-CMV Driver License checks, the program cited 53.8% of truckers for speeding, which rose to 68.2% for car drivers. Only 0.4% of the truckers got tickets for reckless driving, whereas that climbed to 3% of car drivers. Only 0.8% of truckers were cited for improper passing, which rose to 1.7% for car drivers.

But there are also plenty of areas where truckers need to improve. Failure to obey traffic lights and signs is one: 14.7% of those 22,181 truckers got cited for that; only 3.6% of car drivers did. Following too closely was a problem for 5.7% of truckers and 5% for car drivers – that’s something both groups need to work on. Some 3.2% of truckers were cited for improper lane changes; only 2% of car drivers were.

One thing’s for certain – the focus is going to be on drivers of ALL vehicles from here on out when it comes to highway safety improvement efforts. And that all-inclusive approach is definitely a good thing.

“Taxation has made more liars out of the American people than golf has.” –Will Rogers

Like almost every large company in the U.S. tries to do nowadays, FedEx attempted to hide some very bad news in a regulatory filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission last week – and failed miserably.

Buried deep in its regulatory filing – and unearthed faster than gold from a Pharaoh’s tomb – FedEx noted in very dry, terse language that the Internal Revenue Service slapped it with $319 million in fines and penalties for the 2002 tax year ALONE, as the tax man believes FedEx treats its independent contractors like full time employees and so must pay taxes on them as such.

At issue are the 15,000 independent contractors the company’s FedEx Ground division uses as drivers – a business model FedEx used for years as a way to keep costs down. Yet that very same model also put FedEx in hot water with state governments and labor groups such as the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, which is engaged in a long-term campaign to unionize FedEx drivers like what’s been done at FedEx’s biggest rival, United Parcel Service.

At issue, said Bear Stearns analyst Edward Wolfe in a recent research note, is that FedEx exercises too much control over its ground drivers for them to be classified as contractors. As a result, FedEx’s use of contractors is the focus of lawsuits in 36 U.S. states, brought by some current and former FedEx Ground drivers, alleging the level of control the company exercised over their work qualified them as employees — and that they deserve the benefits that go with that status.

Massachusetts’ Attorney General, for example, just cited FedEx Ground for intentionally misclassifying 13 pickup and delivery drivers as independent contractors rather than employees and fined FedEx $190,000 in penalties — alos ordering the comapny to fix their employment status and pay those 13 drivers restitution.

Recently, the California Supreme Court refused to review a California Court of Appeal ruling that found single route FedEx Ground drivers in that state to be misclassified. So, in September this year, the company unilaterally terminated contracts for 1,000 contract drivers in California – paying between $25 million and $37 million in one-time severance costs associated, according to Teamster estimates.

Analyst Jason Seidl with Credit Suisse wrote in a research note to clients that should the FedEx be forced to offer the same deal nationwide, it could cost the company between $250 million and $430 million.

The big problem for FedEx is that the IRS isn’t done with its audits yet, for the federal taxman is now reviewing the company’s books for tax years 2004 through 2006. Credit Suisse’s Siedl added in his research note that the company “could potentially owe nearly $1.5 billion in taxes and expenses when all audits are completed.”

Now, obviously, FedEx is fighting all this – but there will probably come a time when it may choose to settle, rather than carry on what’s shaping up to be an expensive and protracted battle. A title bout against the IRS isn’t what most companies want, and frankly, FedEx should be able to afford to write the agency a big fat settlement check, if you ask me.

Look, the company posted net income in just its SECOND fiscal quarter this year of $479 million on revenues of $9.45 BILLION. Not too shabby for one quarter in a year when freight ton-miles are down 2.2%, fuel costs are skyrocketing, and the U.S. economy seems headed for a recession.

And though concerned about the overall economic outlook, Frederick Smith, FedEx’s chairman, president and CEO, put forth some confident words in his company’s second quarter report. “High fuel prices and weak U.S. economic growth year over year have impacted our business,” he said. “We continue to benefit from solid international growth, which helps mitigate softness in U.S. industrial production. While we see challenging near-term economic trends, we remain confident about long-term prospects in all our business segments.”

Me, I am betting that FedEx is going to completely reshape – if not eliminate – it’s independent contractor business model, settle with the IRS, let everyone get on a soap box and crow about the company’s failures, then get on with business. My only question is why it didn’t do something sooner about its contractors, instead of being forced to make changes under the hammer blows of the taxman and the courts. Would’ve saved them a lot of grief.

“The good lawyer is not the man who has an eye to every side and angle of contingency, and qualifies all his qualifications, but who throws himself on your part so heartily, that he can get you out of a scrape.” –Ralph Waldo Emerson

I’m sure the very last thing you want to do as 2007 draws to a close is contemplate the wonderful world of lawsuits and lawyers. I mean, who hasn’t cursed lawyers under the breath before? I should know, too, because most of my relatives have been or are lawyers, especially my dad, who retired back in 2004 after almost 40 years spent arguing cases in various courtrooms.

Regardless of your feelings for those working in the legal profession, you need good lawyers – like Emerson’s quote above, someone who will fight for your interests in an arena very few of us (myself included) can completely understand. Truckers are especially susceptible to lawsuits – justified and frivolous ones alike – so you need to keep trustworthy legal gunslingers close at hand.

Professor Jerry Osteryoung at Florida State University’s college of business has a great take on the business world’s need to keep solid legal council close at hand – particularly for small businesses, whose profit margins tend to be much tighter and whose fiscal resources can be far more limited. Osteryoung references a case that occurred in my neck of the woods – the infamous “pants lawsuit” – that forced a local dry cleaner to sell their business to cover the cost of their legal fees, even though they won the case!

While it’s an extreme example, it proves the point that you need to keep someone in close reach that understands the law, your business, and keeps your interests foremost in their minds. Professor Osteryoung, take it away …

“In June of this year, an administrative law judge brought a $54 million lawsuit against a Washington D.C. dry cleaning company for a lost pair of pants. Obviously, frivolous suits like this need to be fended off, but unfortunately, the costs can be high. Even though the owners of the store, Soo and Jim Nam Chung, were victorious in the battle, they had to close their business in order to cover the legal fees. While there is really nothing that you can do to prevent a frivolous lawsuit from popping up, there are numerous things that you can – and must – do to reduce their impact.

The first thing is to have a good lawyer either on retainer or one who is willing to represent you in the inevitable case that you get sued. Time is of the essence. As soon as you think that you might get sued, get in to see your attorney. There is so much that they can do to help you deal with the problem if they get involved early.

In addition, having a lawyer that is familiar with your industry and company is so important. The learning curve can be steep and expensive, so having an attorney with experience is worth any extra fee that this might entail.

One of the biggest things that can help reduce the financial cost of a lawsuit is having general commercial liability (GCL) insurance. While the emotional cost of enduring a suit is always going to be high, you can reduce the financial cost by having GCL insurance. Check with your insurance agent to make sure the amount of coverage is correct and, more importantly, consult your attorney about the level and types of insurance you should carry.

Additionally, employers should purchase employment practices liability insurance as “riders” to their GCL policies. Subject to a deducible, this kind of insurance covers the cost of defending against an employment law claim or suit.

Another way that you can help protect yourself against litigation-related risk is by using written contracts that specify goods and services being sold, disclaim warranties that are automatically implied under the Uniform Commercial Code, provide some limitation on liability (such as replacement cost of the goods) and require arbitration of disputes. In the case of the dry cleaner, the owners might have been able to avoid the lawsuit entirely had they included language of this kind on the claim check they gave to the customer when he dropped off the dry cleaning.

A final thing to remember is that when it comes to settling a lawsuit: You just cannot let your ego get involved regardless of who is right and who is wrong. We are dealing with a client who has been repeatedly sued by one plaintiff’s attorney for a number of very minor things. The client wants to take a hard position by taking the case to trial in an effort to stop the lawsuits. While the firm might win the case, the legal fees will likely exceed $100,000, and ultimately, this tactic is just not going to be a deterrent to being sued.

Lawsuits are inevitable. They are just the way our country operates. The key is making sure you are protected by insurance to ensure that the impact of a lawsuit will be small.”

“Just remember this, Mr. Potter, that this rabble you are talking about – they do most of the working and paying and living and dying in this community.” –George Bailey from the movie “It’s a Wonderful Life”

I know, I know – do I have to go and quote from what’s considered one of the cheesiest Christmas movies of all time? Isn’t it going to be on television enough here over the next few days?

Well, I can’t help it. Something of a flop when it came out in 1946, Frank Capra’s “It’s a Wonderful Life” went on to become a major holiday classic — and also became one of Jimmy Stewart’s most heralded roles. I won’t bore you with the details (turn on any TV channel, cable or otherwise – you’ll see it somewhere) but suffice to say it’s a film that’s become part of the culture in our country. Heck, my political science textbook back in college used this film as the basis for several chapters spent delving into the quintessential system of values formed during baby boom era.

Yet I think this little black and white film still speaks to a lot of beliefs deep-rooted in the American psyche: that every person’s life, no matter how insignificant it seems to them, has an impact far greater than they know. Like ripples in a pond, a person’s actions shift events in all sorts of unexpected ways. George Bailey saves the life of his brother, Harry, and allows him to go on to college in his place. Eventually, Harry becomes an ace fighter pilot and saves the lives of thousands of soldiers stuck on a troopship after shooting down a kamikaze attacker. Without George in those two critical moments in Harry’s life, Harry could not go on to save other lives – something George is shown by his guardian angel Clarence later on.

It’s pretty significant, too, I think that Jimmy Stewart took on this role. Already hugely famous before World War II, Stewart fought in the skies over Europe as a bomber pilot and squadron commander and proved to be popular and well liked by his fellow airmen. A bonafide war hero, he could’ve taken on any number of dashing roles – indeed, Hollywood practically hounded him to do some stirring war movie – but George Bailey is the character he chose to portray in his first post-war film.

For me, though, this sappy cinematic Capra masterpiece serves as an important reminder: that a person’s value isn’t wrapped up in fame and fortune, how many cars they have in the driveway, or the designer labels on their blue jeans. It’s about what they do in life to make even their small corner of the world a better place. That’s where the true value in humanity lies, I think.

To round out the sappiness, I’d like to leave you with some words from Robert F. Kennedy: and regardless of your views of the Kennedy family in history as well as politics, I think Robert’s words speak pretty effectively to what we truly need to hold dear in this country of ours. Merry Christmas.

“Let us be clear at the outset that we will find neither national purpose nor personal satisfaction in a mere continuation of economic progress and an endless amassing of worldly goods. We cannot measure national spirit by the Dow Jones Average, nor national achievement by the gross national product.

And if the gross national product includes all of this, there is much it does not comprehend. It does not allow for the health of our families, the quality of their education, of the joy in their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry, the strength of their marriages, the intelligence of our public debate, or the integrity of our public officials. The gross national product measures neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to country. It measures everything, in short, except that which makes life worthwhile; and it can tell us everything about America – except whether we are proud to be Americans.”

“He stopped to capture a wagon train. And what was a wagon train compared to the tremendous issues we had at stake?” –General Robert E. Lee

The above quote comes from comments the famous general made about his cavalry commander, Jeb Stuart, before the battle of Gettysburg – the moment most historians recognize as the “high water mark” of the Confederacy during the Civil War.

Stuart had gone off on a dashing raid behind Union lines, forgetting that his cavalry served as Lee’s eyes and ears. Deprived of badly needed intelligence, Lee found himself forced to fight at Gettysburg, sacrificing the high ground and much of the battle’s initiative to the Union forces under General George Meade. Though Stuart rejoined Lee as the first day of that deadly battle drew to a close (with his captured wagons in tow) the die, as they say, had been cast – and Stuart’s oversight, compounded with other mistakes, would cost the Confederacy dearly.

I’m reminded of this as the debate over hours of service (HOS) regulations heats up yet again, battling on well worn turf over how many hours per day a trucker can drive. From my perspective, at least, that seems almost incidental to the real problem: how many hours per day a trucker must wait. The long lines spent awaiting the chance to load or unload, followed by the time spent physically loading or unloading the trailers themselves.

Frankly, that wait time is what blows HOS all to hell. Sure, under the current rules, a driver gets three hours per day (out of a 14 hour on-duty schedule) that can be used for loading and unloading purposes. Problem is, three hours doesn’t even come close to covering how much time drivers actually spend on those tasks.

A 1999 dry van driver survey found truckload drivers on average typically waited 2.3 hours JUST to load their trailers: Loading itself consumed another 1.1 hours of their time. On the back end, again, waiting to unload took up the most time – 2.4 hours on average – with unloading taking 1.2 hours. I know this survey is almost 10 years old, but it’s the only one I know of that looked this issue square in the face.

The Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) contends that shippers and receivers make drivers wait anywhere from two hours to two DAYS to load and unload their trailers – time that drivers don’t get compensated for. Many drivers I’ve talked to say that’s the main reason why so much logbook fudging goes on – they need to put miles on the road to earn something back to cover all that unpaid time.

A March 2003 report by ICF Consulting for the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) addressed this issue in pretty damning terms. The report – saddled with the unwieldy title of “Evaluation of U.S. Commercial Motor Carrier Industry Challenges and Opportunities” – had this to say about waiting time and its impact on trucking operations:

“While a portion of driver wait time may be attributable to carriers building buffers into their schedules to ensure on-time pickup and delivery, the biggest contributing factor is that shippers and receivers do not directly bear the cost of keeping driver and equipment waiting,” it said.

“Shippers are typically charged by the mile and do not incur any immediate costs for making drivers wait: Drivers and carriers bear the costs of waiting in lost wages and revenue. Carriers may recoup some of these costs by charging higher rates. [But] the fact that private carriers delivering to owned facilities rarely have to wait tells us that the cost of long wait times in for-hire carriage are not being internalized in the rate structure. That is, when a single entity bears both the cost and benefit of waiting, it rarely chooses to make its drivers wait. If shippers had to bear the cost of waiting, they would behave differently.”

The report also touched on an even thornier issue: lumpers. “While loading and unloading is often done by the truck driver or by the shipper/receiver, independent employees sometimes perform these activities. One carrier noted the related problem of being forced to use these individuals – known as ‘lumpers’ – at a high cost, or else waiting one to two days to load or unload. This problem is reportedly most serious in the refrigerated foods business.”

“If drivers were compensated for all of the work they do, drivers’ time would become valuable and shippers would be forced to streamline their operations to minimize loading and unloading time,” contended OOIDA member Walter Krupski in testimony before the U.S. Congress this week. “A new approach is needed if Congress and the agency truly wish to make significant improvements in driver fatigue.”

Some receivers, Krupski noted, even require drivers to perform warehouse work such as restacking pallets. Not only is such work unpaid, it also essentially steals the time that drivers have under the HOS rules to do the work they are actually paid for: driving the truck. It’s OOIDA’s belief that if drivers were compensated for both their driving and non-driving on-duty work, they would have every incentive to record all of their on-duty time, and problems with the accuracy of logbooks would disappear.

I really think there’s a lot of truth to this – and that if waiting time abuses aren’t addressed, then HOS reforms aren’t going to amount to a hill of beans. They’ll end up being as worthless as Stuart’s wagon train.

I love the truck calendars I start getting around this time of year. Regular as clockwork, they start appearing in my mailbox – chock full of spit-shined trucks of various makes and models, rolling iron worthy of any showroom in the world.

One of my favorites is Shell’s Rotella SuperRigs calendar, now in its 25th year believe it or not. It highlights one-of-a-kind creations crafted from chrome, aluminum, and steel – and 120 owner-operators from across the U.S. and Canada competed for the chance to be pictured in Shell’s 2008 calendar (along with $25,000 in cash prizes – not too shabby, if I say so myself).

Curtis Christians of Rockford, MO captured “Best of Show” honors, taking home a cash prize of $10,000 for his 2005 Peterbilt 379 tractor and 2005 Great Dane trailer, which you’ll see on the cover. But on the back is a special “before and after” montage detailing the transformation of Bob and Geri Martin’s 1995 Peterbilt 379. They won a special $50,000 truck makeover from Shell, with the work done by S&J Truck Sales. I’ve seen this truck myself up close and let me tell you it’s a beauty.

Yet these calendars are becoming more than just mere homage’s to sheet metal. With each succeeding year, the stories behind the trucks and their owners are on display – perfectly captured vignettes that offer interesting and sometimes poignant insight into the human lives in trucking, not only in the U.S. but also from across the world.

Here’s a perfect example: Volvo Trucks North America’s 2008 calendar. There are 12 great stories in here, each told with a handful of photos and well-crafted prose. There’s the Tracy family, owner of Dot Foods, plying the refrigerated trade across the U.S. In Scotland we meet David McPherson, CEO of another family-owned business, McPherson Transport, which transports whiskey and other related products (and oh don’t I want to go visit THESE guys!) There’s Nicolas Ancazi, deftly picking his way along narrow mountain roads in Bolivia, and tattoo-covered Neil Roddham, who’s spent 14 years driving massive oilrig trucks across the burning sands of Yemen and Oman.

The one that really caught my attention, though, is Jay Haripersad’s story. When he decided to make trucking his livelihood in 1978, driving was the one thing he couldn’t do in South Africa at the time, then suffering under the brutal heel of apartheid. A person of color, like Jay, would’ve faced fines, fail time or worse if they drove a truck – a privilege reserved for only whites. But he persevered and today is CEO of Westmead Carriers – and his trucks sport some eye-popping designs, too; a testament to the African landscape that surrounds him.

There’s a lot more stories in there (you’ll find the one about South Korea’s “Maniac” truck clubs a hoot, I am sure) that go into making this particular calendar more than just a mere collection of dates and beauty shots. And I truly hope this trend sticks around, for I love to read stories like these. They open up a window into the life and times of truckers everywhere, which helps me at least appreciate that much more what this industry does for our country – and indeed the world – every day.

You know, trailer security is a pretty big issue in this country, although it rarely makes the headlines. That’s a direct result in the booming growth in cargo theft – a crime that, in many places, still carries little in the way of penalties while offering a hefty monetary return.

Annual losses to cargo theft are hard to pin down, though. Estimates range from $3.5 billion annually, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), to between $10 billion and $15 billion per year, as calculated by the International Cargo Security Council. Indirect costs related to cargo theft – not including all law enforcement or security technology costs – range from $20 billion to $60 billion each year, according to several industry estimates.

“Cargo theft is our number-one priority,” said Unit Chief Eric Ives, who heads the Major Theft Unit in the FBI’s Criminal Investigative Division in a report issues by the agency last year. According to Ives, the average freight on a trailer is valued between $12,000 and $3 million with the most common theft “hotspots” bring truck yards, hubs for commercial freight carriers, and port cities.

One way the trucking industry is looking to combat cargo theft while also getting some other efficiency benefits in the bargain is by tracking trailers. Making trailer tracking technology affordable, however, is a debate that’s raged for many years now in trucking. Now it looks like the latest chapter is going to be opened next month (January 8th to be precise) courtesy of an online “webinar” hosted by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) and the American Trucking Research Institute (ATRI).

The January 8th “webinar” will focus on carrier utilization of un-tethered trailer tracking systems (UTT) and their potential to improve asset management while beefing up security in trucking operations. One of the participants is Mike Gabbei, chief information officer for Celadon Trucking Services. He’s someone I’ve interviewed before on technology topics and let me tell you his insight will be particularly valuable as he has a good knack for turning “technospeak” into clear English. Another will be Al Hoffer, director of trailer operations for Landstar Systems – another carrier that’s no slouch when it comes to using technology to improve efficiency (and thus cut costs while boosting profits).

To register for the webinar, send an email to FMCSA_Host@dot.gov and include the words “UTT Webinar” in the subject line. The online conference starts at 12 noon eastern standard on Jan. 8 and should run for about one and half hours, according to ATRI. Confirmation notices will be emailed within 24 hours of registration, containing the web address, phone number, and other relevant information for participation.

Whether you are considering using such technology or not for your fleet, I think it’s well worth attending, because one day – I am most certain of this – commercial truck trailers will all be equipped with some sort of tracking device, maybe by federal mandate.

“One of the tests of leadership is the ability to recognize a problem before it becomes an emergency.” –Arnold Glasgow.

There’s no getting around it: pushing paper is a dull task on the very best of days. Today, with the massive amount of information coming from the Internet and other electronic sources, managing the paper flow can seem almost overwhelming. And not a few in the business world — trucking included — express no small amount of exasperation in dealing with it.

Yet paperwork (still a catch-all phrase despite information’s more electronic profile nowadays) is still vital — especially in trucking. Just look outside our industry for a minute: the District of Columbia lost over $44 million over a seven year period to an employee in the tax department who siphoned off that money by giving bogus refund checks to family and friends. How does this happen? Lax administration. You can’t take $44 million without leaving a paper trail … but you need to be looking at the paper trail to notice a problem.

Switch back to trucking. Meeting hours of service (HOS) rules requires a huge devotion to paperwork. Whether you agree with the rules or not, one thing is for certain though: if that paperwork isn’t in order, for the driver or for the companyas a whole, all kinds of trouble will be coming your way. That’s why many fleets have top administrative folks keeping tabs on all their HOS information.

I’m going to let Dr. Jerry Osteryoung at Florida State University’s college of business take it from here: he’s got some good insight into the reasons why administration is a necessary task your company — be it a one or 500 truck carrier — needs to be good at.

“Administration of a business is one of those things that every entrepreneur and business owner must deal with over and over. Keeping books, maintaining proper documentation, paying bills and taxes, selecting vendors and finding insurance carriers are just a few of these tasks. While many wish they did not have to deal with them, administrative tasks cannot be avoided. Despite the fact that administration is neither a fun nor a necessarily high-payoff activity, it is critical to the success of any business.

When running a business, the devil is in the details. Therefore, administration is just one of those things that cannot be avoided. You just cannot make intelligent decisions about important parts of your business without a clear understanding of their ramifications. In many cases, however, many in business feel as if it is more important that they be out selling or doing something that is more productive. They do not want to ‘waste’ time on these administrative functions.

As a result, I have frequently seen many entrepreneusr relegating very important decisions to very low skill-level employees. Unfortunately, I have also witnessed the tragic errors of doing so. These errors have included failing to arrange the proper insurance for company vehicles and skipping an employee’s background check with dire consequences.

These administrative functions are both important and frequently urgent. Sure, ask an employee to do some of the background work, but the ultimate decision must be yours. While you rarely see a positive return on making a correct decision, the costs of making an incorrect decision are so very high. It is just too dangerous to trust these types of decisions to workers without the appropriate background.

Most successful entrepreneurs spend 20% to 25% of their time on administration. For small and start-up businesses, administration can seem even more time consuming. However, it is just the cost of doing business, and over time, it will get better.

Entrepreneurs who simply cannot devote the necessary time to administrative functions should either hire outside consultants or enlist people they trust to help make these decisions. One savvy accountant suggested that the administrative tasks be shared by other people in the organization – assuming of course, that there are appropriate checks and balances.

These functions are absolutely critical to the success of your business and are just too important not to warrant adequate amounts of your time. By devoting the appropriate time and energy to this part of your business, you will allow the business to grow to the next level.”

“Never give in: Never, never, never, never, in nothing great or small, large or petty. Never give in except to convictions of honor and good sense.” –Winston Churchill

So the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) is going to stick with the 11-hour driving time limit and 34-hour restart provisions that got thrown out by the U.S. District Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit back on July 24. Not much of a surprise there, for the agency long thought these two parts of the revised hours of service (HOS) legislation it put in place back in 2004 worked well for truckers. And it’s prepared to go to the mat for them, too.

“The people who have litigated in the past against these rules will most likely do so again,” John Hill, FMCSA’s chief administrator, said in a phone conference with reporters this week. “We are prepared to go to court to defend these rules.”

And to court they shall be going, I guarantee you, for the rhetoric is already thick and heavy in the air over this.

“FMCSA is continuing to allow large trucks to roll like time bombs on our highways,” said Joan Claybrook, president of Public Citizen, in a press release responding to the agency’s decision. “With its action today, the administration has shown that it is willing to risk carnage on the highways to boost the bottom line for big corporations. We urge the agency to draft a rule based on science instead of industry politics – a rule that will protect truck drivers and those of us who share the road with them. To do otherwise is the height of insanity.”

“It’s clear the Bush administration has more loyalty to its corporate supporters than to the men and women who actually drive on our roads,” said James Hoffa, the Teamsters’ general president, in a similar statement. “The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration in particular is showing that it is held captive by the trucking industry.”

OK, so we all know these rules are incredibly divisive … but are they truly unsafe? At the end of the day, do they make more sense than the old rules?

I asked a couple of longtime industry veterans this question and here are some of their thoughts.

“In regard to highway safety, while I don’t believe the rules will do anything to make the industry less safe, more needs to be done by both trucking management and their customers to encourage practices that will ensure drivers are better rested,” said David Sparkman, a veteran journalist and public relations expert that’s covered trucking for decades. “That should be a factor for consideration at a time when more exacting demand-driven supply chains are rapidly reshaping drivers’ daily reality.”

So I looked at some of the safety statistics compiled by the Feds used to support their contention that the 11-hour drive time limit and 34-restart provisions don’t lead to unsafe driving conditions.

For starters, truck-involved fatalities decreased 4.7% last year – from 5,240 in 2005 to 4,995 in 2006, the largest percentage drop in truck-involved fatalities since 1992 – and the number of truck-involved-crash injuries decreased by almost 2,000 in 2005 and dropped another 8,000 in 2006. Over the last seven years, the fatality rate per 100 million miles dropped 13% – so at a time when trucks are logging more and more miles on the rate, fewer people are being killed.

Bob Inderbitzen, another industry veteran and long-time safety expert, added that there are a lot more positives than negatives in these revised rules – positives that many are ignoring.

“The best change is that you can no longer abuse drivers and put them off the clock even though they are still responsible for the vehicle – waiting in line, waiting to unload, etc.,” he told me. “We are also closer now to a 24-hour clock which matches the circadian rhythm of human beings [14 on and 10 off] and I also like the 34-hour restart since it allows a ‘weekend effect’ of two full rest/sleep periods that also … allows you to bring a driver home after a restart.”

Inderbitzen also believes that safety rates are improving precisely because of the HOS change. “You have to communicate with drivers, run some training sessions, provide logbook examples, and generally pay more attention to them than you might have been doing,” he explained. “Even an owner-operator had to study the changes, to see what effect they had on his/her business and adjust accordingly. All these things help to refocus on safety and take people out of their routines and comfort zones. Call it a wake up call, if you will; but I believe awareness is heightened when you are adjusting to change.”

He added that the benefits of this “wake up call” are being felt especially with new drivers. “If you select well, a new driver is usually safe for the first 18 months to two years while getting used to the new company, new routes, new products, new supervisors, and much more. Then, as things get more routine, accidents would start to happen,” Inderbitzen said. “It is no accident – pun intended – that HAZMAT retraining is required every three years. It keeps drivers on their toes.”

Here’s what really gets me about the war of words and legal challenges over HOS today: the so-called safety advocates got 90% of what they wanted when the feds revised the regulations.

Under the old rules, a driver looked at a 15-hour workday that could be indefinitely extended by logging breaks. Now, they work a 14-hour day – one hour shorter than before – and the clock CANNOT be stopped. Drivers used to face five hours of non-driving on-duty time – now they only face three. They used to get just eight hours off; now they get 10, a full two hours more. But by just adding one extra hour of drive time, going from 10 to 11, the so-called safety groups are willing to throw the whole smash out and go back to the old rules – rules created way back in 1933, when they didn’t even conduct sleep studies, much less envision global supply chains.

Many drivers aren’t happy with the revised rules because they feel they can’t take a break: that with the clock running, they need to drive or risk losing pay if they stop for a rest break. FMCSA’s John Hill is aware of this – I asked him about it and he said the agency would address it once they get some sort of finality to the basic HOS rules. “We must have a final framework in place before we start looking at breaks,” he told me. “So our focus right now is getting a final rule done.”

Still, to my mind at least, the HOS rules the industry is working under right now seem to be working – they provide good building blocks from which improvements to the driver’s working life can be made. “I know there has been a lot of rhetoric around one size not fitting all, but I think there is enough flexibility to satisfy most: You’ll never get them all,” said Inderbitzen. “And I agree – [fatality and injury] rates are going down. I don’t think you can argue with success.”